Property News: Prices Aren't Falling - Here's Why! (July 25)
The property market has been making headlines recently, with reports suggesting a drop in prices. However, a closer look reveals that these claims may not tell the full story. In this blog, we’ll explore why property prices aren’t falling as suggested and what we can expect in the months ahead.
The Headlines: Are Prices Really Falling?
Recent reports from major sources like The Guardian, Nationwide, and Halifax have pointed to a slight drop in house prices. Nationwide announced a 0.8% fall, the largest in two years, while Halifax reported a 0.4% dip, and Rightmove mentioned a 0.3% decrease. The Land Registry also showed a 2.7% fall in April.
At first glance, these figures might seem concerning. However, they don’t fully capture the dynamics of the property market. Instead, they are the result of temporary factors and don't reflect an ongoing trend of falling property values.
The Impact of Stamp Duty Changes
One crucial factor to understand is the effect of changes to Stamp Duty. Each time the government adjusts Stamp Duty, we typically see a surge in property transactions just before the changes take effect. This happened in March 2025, when the number of completions across Manning Stainton nearly doubled compared to the previous year.
This spike in March leads to a natural slowdown in the following months, like April and May. Lower transaction volumes, along with a higher proportion of lower-priced homes being sold, can skew the numbers and create the illusion of falling prices.
Thus, the dip in prices isn’t necessarily a reflection of the market itself, but of government policy affecting the timing and mix of transactions.
The Lag in Data Reporting
Another key point is the timing of property sale completions. When indices like Nationwide or Halifax report on price changes, they’re referencing properties that have already completed. This means that the prices being reported today are based on deals agreed upon several months ago, often in December or January. Given the typical 18-20 week time frame for property transactions to close, the prices reported in May reflect market conditions from early 2025—not the current state of the market.
Additionally, December and January are slower months for higher-value properties, leading to a natural dip in the average sale price during that time. This seasonal variation is often overlooked when interpreting the data, but it plays a role in the perceived drop in prices.
What Independent Data Shows
Independent resources like Twenty EA offer a clearer picture of the market’s current state. Their data on sales agreed across various regions shows that, when comparing sales agreed in 2024 and 2025, the average price of properties agreed upon over the past two months is actually more than 6% higher than it was at this time last year.
This is a clear indication that, despite the negative headlines, property prices are trending upward, not downward. Demand remains strong, and there is little evidence to suggest that prices are falling across the board.
What to Expect in the Coming Months
Looking ahead, I anticipate more of the same in the property market. The key drivers of market activity remain intact—strong demand, limited supply, and competitive lending rates. While the government may make promises about increasing housing supply, the reality is that we’re still not building enough new homes to meet the demand.
In addition, mortgage rates continue to be relatively attractive, giving buyers access to favourable lending conditions. As long as these factors hold, we can expect the market to remain stable, with steady prices in most regions.
In Conclusion
The recent reports of falling property prices are largely driven by temporary factors such as the aftermath of Stamp Duty changes and seasonal variations in the market. These reports often focus on completed sales that reflect market conditions from months ago, not the current reality.
The property market remains solid, with strong demand and limited supply supporting prices. So, if you’re considering entering the market, there’s no need to worry about a significant price drop. In fact, the evidence suggests that property values are on an upward trajectory.
Don’t be swayed by sensationalist headlines—take a step back, look at the bigger picture, and you’ll see that the property market is far more stable than the news would have you believe.
