Key Factors Set To Impact The Market | Property News September 2024
Mark, our Managing Director, discusses several key factors and their likely impact on the property market in the coming months. He also looks at the latest figures to see what they can tell us about supply and demand in the property market right now.
So a quick roundup of September and I'm pleased to report much of the same as months previous; strong levels of activity with lots of new property coming to market and plenty of new sales too.
What's does the property market data tell us?
However, the Data we have from Twenty CI which looks at the whole of market does give some signs that the overall picture could be starting to change a little.
In September there was an 8% increase YOY in the number of new properties listed, however, the number of properties sold was 22% higher than a year ago. Plus, we saw a small drop of 1% in the number of properties reduced.
So, what does this mean? I think when we start to see the level of demand outstrip supply we begin to see evidence of some potential price movement in the market, especially amongst those really popular house types in really good locations. Interestingly, we heard just this week The Nationwide reporting the fastest house price growth for over 2 years and Rightmove reporting in their house price blog that the seasonal increase in prices in September was double the long term average.
However, don’t get too excited just yet! Whilst we can see that prices are starting to move, we are definitely not seeing any boom or big jump, just gentle growth, the type we would associate with a more normal market.
So what else do we need to be thinking about? Let's discuss a few important factors that may have an impact on the market in the coming months.
Key Factor 1 - Interest rates & mortgage rates
The next meetings regarding rates is on the 7th November and the 19th December and its widely expected that rates will come down again to 4.75% and then maybe further into next year. This, combined with increased competition amongst lenders, will be a key factor in driving price growth, as affordability issues continue to ease for those looking to buy.
Key Factor 2 - The budget
The Budget is coming on the 30th October and this is what we expect to see:
- A change to Capital Gains Tax wont effect most buyers and sellers, but will have a potential impact on those that have owned property for a long time as an investment.
- We are hoping, albeit not expectant, of a change to Stamp Duty with an almost forgotten about deadline approaching at the end of March, where the current £250,000 threshold will default back to the original £125,000. after which stamp duty will be paid. If we don’t see a change to this it could create a short term flurry in activity which is often the case when one of these deadlines is drawing closer.
The Renters Rights Bill
Finally, we await the date of the recently released Renters Rights Bill which puts an end to Section 21 no-fault evictions. This is one of the most significant changes ever to happen in the process of renting a property and whilst most professional landlords and agents will see it as a good thing, there is no doubt it will create disruption and cause some landlords to exit the market and sell up.
So all of these things, whilst not likely to cause big problems will have some impact on the market moving forward. As ever, be sure to keep updated on the latest property news and insights in our monthly property updates.
