Property Market To Get A Starmer Surge?

Our Managing Director Mark provides a snapshot of the market in June and makes his predictions for the property market on the back of Labour's Landslide victory in the recent general election.

Manning Stainton

Introduction to our market update

This month's market update has taken a little longer to bring to you than usual, but for good reason. We've had a general election to contend with, and now the results are in, with Labour winning by a landslide, we can properly assess what we expect the UK property market to look like in the coming months and the second half of 2024.

A look back at the UK property market in June

The month of June has been an interesting one for the property market across our region for a number of reasons. Not only did we have the run-in to the general election, but England were (somehow) making their way through the group stage of the Euros and just more generally, we've finally started to see some better weather in Leeds and the rest of West Yorkshire. Taking all these factors into account, we'd have expected to see a real slowdown in activity, but actually, the figures, a mix of data from Twenty EA and our own, tell a different story.

Property market in June 2024 for Leeds in numbers

- The number of new properties brought to market was only 5% down against June 2023 but still a massive 29% higher from the start of the year.

- And the number of properties placed under offer is actually down 1% but a massive 37% higher than 2023 over the same period!

- 6% more new buyers registered than at this time last year and

- 17% more viewings carried out

What the data tells us about the strength of the property market

The data above suggests events in June have very little impact on the fortunes of the property market and when we consider the previous election run-ins, this is even more thought-provoking. Back in November 2019, the month before Boris was elected by a similarly wide margin, and evident again in 2017 in the leadup to Theresa May's victory, we saw a noticeable drop off in market activity. The fact that June 2024 seems to have bucked this trend and has remained relevantly unaffected is a testament to the market's stability at this time.

What do past elections tell us about the future of the property market?

There's reason to believe the market may experience The Starmer Surge, but what does this mean and where's the evidence? Firstly, back in 2017 following Theresa May's victory where she had to form a coalition minority government, the market actively reduced significantly and compared to other months, fell off a cliff. Contrastingly, the months that followed Boris' landslide victory in 2019 saw a huge upturn in market activity. This phenomenon became known as the Boris Bounce, and this only came to an end when the pandemic hit.

History tells us that a clear and significant result is more likely to lead to a surge in market activity compared to a minority election win which creates a degree of uncertainty. Given Labour's big win, don't be surprised to see the Starmer Surge in the market in the coming months!

Additional factors to consider for the future of the property market

Mortgage rates are also expected to come down and usually, this correlates with more market activity. There's also some exciting noise about new government policies to 'Get Britain Building' again, which may see the reintroduction of housing targets for local authorities which should make it much easier to build on green belt land.

So right now, things are looking good for the property market, at least for the remainder of this year. Much of what happens beyond that will depend on how this government delivers on their promises, plus we must not overlook the critical presidential election in the US later this year. Stability for them will be so important to the UK and the rest of the world in the years ahead.

Keep watching these updates for the latest property market insights!

Market Update Guides & Property Insights